Cover via Amazon

I am currently reading a book entitled The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb or NNT as he calls himself throughout.  It is a very thought-provoking read and gets you thinking quite critically with regard to how you assess the probabilities of a given set of circumstances, how sound (or un-sound) are predictive models and obviously the impact of the unexpected (or Black Swan).  Makes sense, after all the sub-title is “The Impact of the Highly Improbable”.

I’m about 2/3 of the way through and find it a strenuous read simply by challenging myself to think through the principles that NNT takes you through.  The concept of certainty and our natural search for causal effects is something he discusses quite thoroughly.  We do often look for the “cause” of what has occurred or what we believe will occur based on a given set of circumstances or by taking a certain course of action.  It is ingrained in our being. He posits that this is often not the right way to look at things.  That the world is too complex to wrap everything nicely in a box with a bow.

We also don’t typically think of things in terms of NOT, usually we always aim for what NNT refers to as confirmation, what IS.  How often do you look at a problem and take the approach to prove your hypothesis is correct?  Well, isn’t the only way to truly do that is to disprove every other possibility?  How can you guarantee that you’ve covered every possibility?  Truth is, we can’t. Certainty for the most part alludes us.

That doesn’t mean we should try however.  I recently read the book Moneyball and cannot help but appreciate its juxtaposition with this book’s concepts.  It discusses quite the opposite view. Billy Beane’s strive to design the best way to predict future performance of baseball players and he was quite successful doing just that (and not in obvious ways). Ironically, Taleb too touches briefly on baseball quoting Yogi Berra, “It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future” and referring to him in a way that applies to many of us within our chosen fields:

practitioner of uncertainty, and as a baseball player and coach, regularly faced random outcomes, and had to face their results deep into his bones

One of my favorite lines from the book is:

It is often said that “is wise he who can see things coming.”  Perhaps the wise one is the one who knows that he cannot see things far away.

I cannot help but appreciate the impact of keeping an open mind can help decision-making and on how “certainty” can affect judgment.  Keeping a healthy dose of perspective with regard to the improbability that exists can only help us make sound decisions.  Being consciously aware that even with the best and brightest predictive modeling, there is a degree of chaos or uncertainty in almost everything that we cannot control.  Working through, recognizing it and obviously not falling into ‘paralysis by analysis’ is paramount and applies to everything, in work and in life.

I’ll be honest, reading this book, I can’t but keep thinking of Jeff Goldblum’s character in Jurassic Park, Dr. Ian Malcolm, spouting off about ‘chaos theory’.  If a mix of statistical probability and philosophy is something that interests you, I recommend the book.  Of course, how can I not recommend a book that incorporates a chapter entitled, “How to Look for Bird Poop”.

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